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AI Scenarios to 2029: What's Possible and What Creates Lasting Value
AI scenarios to 2029: which AI projects create lasting value, and which early indicators point to a plateau or an acceleration.
I have spent more than 20 years building and leading B2B software companies as a co-founder with an exit, CEO, COO and CCO. I write about how AI changes business models, software economics and enterprise value. I work with business owners, boards and investors on specific growth, financing and integration situations.
Operational analysis and implementation through Convios.

Profile
Insights
Perspectives from 20 years of B2B software, PE and fundraising.

Key Takeaways
AI scenarios to 2029: which AI projects create lasting value, and which early indicators point to a plateau or an acceleration.

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Scaling B2B software sales in four stages: the number that matters at each stage, and how to tell where your sales team stands today.

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Token prices keep falling while AI bills keep growing, and vendors keep swapping their counting units. The AI price ladder sorts today's AI pricing models in five steps.

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AI agents run software through APIs and MCP while the screen stays dark. Why headless software shifts value into permissions, audit trails and codified business rules.

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Most consultancies say AI hasn't touched their prices. The largest firms are already tying fees to results. When outcome-based pricing beats the day rate, and when it doesn't.

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By 2029 some 114,000 German SMEs plan to wind down each year, against 109,000 looking for a successor. The IfM points to earnings, not to ageing owners.

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Tech deal value fell 70% in a single quarter because investors stopped trusting software valuations under AI pressure. A four-field AI due diligence playbook for boards, buyers and sellers.

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A factor of ten separates the strongest model from the smallest. Cutting AI costs starts with sorting your tasks.

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AI agents complete work without filling seats, and SaaS pricing models are shifting toward hybrid and outcome billing. What buyers and software leaders should sort out before the next renewal.

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The Internet Communication Study 2025/26 shows who uses AI in Germany: ChatGPT reaches 87.5% of the youngest, autonomous AI shopping meets resistance, email stays the preferred channel.

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How smaller, niche B2B SaaS companies build a defensible castle, on their own data, deep workflow, regulation and a physical layer.

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Around six percent of companies turn AI into real bottom-line value. Four levers and a well-dug moat separate the winners from the expensive rest.

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Hold periods keep stretching and evergreen vehicles keep launching. What that does to the buy-and-build platform, and where the line between group and company should really run.

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A practical impulse for mid-sized firms: a checklist for responsible AI use, six decisions and the legal context (EU AI Act, GDPR, NIS2). Slides and checklist as PDF.

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In 2026, most B2B software no longer scales through direct sales alone. Three levers from three mandates, plus one thing that holds them all together.

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Anthropic's keynote on the future of the Model Context Protocol in London and what it implies for B2B software business models, pricing, and PE valuations.

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The framework question is the wrong first question. Three architecture decisions decide whether your AI compliance architecture survives an audit.

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Multi-agent RAG for mid-sized companies: when does it pay off, what does it cost, and which architecture fits 50 to 500 employees? Complexity levels, costs, and concrete first steps.

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Six EU regulations active simultaneously. NIS2 enforcement live since December 2025. What German SMEs must implement before autumn 2026.

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81% of mid-market firms don't measure AI ROI. The AI ROI Map shows which investments pay off and how fast.

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43% of mid-market firms lack an AI strategy. 15 frameworks reveal where you stand, what's legally required, and where to find free support.

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36% of German companies use AI. Most CEOs have a hard time catching up with the terminology. 25 terms explained through five real situations from mid-market companies.

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Executives use AI, and students rely on AI. Neither checks the output properly. When does AI make sense, and when does it take human judgment?

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35% of enterprise teams have already replaced SaaS with custom builds. But disruption hits unevenly. A framework separating fixed market dimensions from controllable levers.

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42% of companies abandon AI initiatives before production. Three root causes and four steps to move agentic AI into operations.

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How an AI operating system works in practice: field report, CLAUDE.md template, and an honest three-week assessment with Claude Code.
Standpoints
For me, AI, regulation and growth belong together. Companies that think them together grow faster and safer. That holds for software companies as much as for established businesses that are making AI part of their core. From that follow three guiding principles: growth, speed, and defensibility.
Growth comes from the right mechanics. I start in the engine room.
Go-to-market, pricing, sales motion, and the economics behind them.
Articles on thisBuild the guardrails, then drive fast. In exactly that order.
Governance as a speed lever. AI as a company-wide tool in engineering, service, and sales.
Articles on thisScale only counts when it is defensible: workflow, data, distribution.
Moats, workflow lock-in, and the investor lens on B2B software.
Articles on thisTrack record
Bachelor seminar on AI systems in practice: architecture, integration and scaling.
Seminar at the Department of Informatics, University of Zurich, fall semester 2026. Students build AI systems in groups against practical assignments, covering architecture, integration and scalable operation.
Operating standards, governance and AI delivery in globally distributed software teams.
MSc lecture at the Department of Informatics, University of Zurich, fall semester 2026. Distributed delivery, vendor management, AI in DevOps, IT governance and B2B SaaS delivery at scale.
Standing still is not a strategy: how compliance consulting stays defensible in the AI era.
Twelve seats for business owners and decision-makers: build a tool for your own problem that runs by the evening.
Twelve building stations, two trainers, one day of focused building on each participant's own case. The second edition follows on October 24, 2026.
The photo retrospective on eigenbau.app

SELECTED TALKS
References
ABOUT ME


I'm an entrepreneur. That's what I've been in every mandate and every role, in startups, scale-ups, and corporates. The title changes. The mindset stays.
Getting on top of new topics fast, finding the screw in the gearbox and loosening it. That's what drives me. Growth gets less of a head start today than it did five years ago. Less room, more discipline, faster decisions. That's exactly when I get the call.
In the gliding club, the bricklayer flew with the professor, and they sat at the same table that evening. That's where I learned early that substance beats hierarchy. Today I fly actively, PPL(A) with night and seaplane ratings. When the horizon disappears, you rely on your instruments, structure, and training. That's how I run companies.
I've kept that technical depth through every phase and pass it on today at the University of Zurich.
Doctorate in information systems from the University of Augsburg, summa cum laude. Lecturer at the Department of Informatics, University of Zurich.
THESES
From practice, sharpened in articles and conversations. Every thesis comes with a resolution, many with an article behind it. If you disagree, that's exactly what the button is for.
Everyone wants to go fast with AI. Building the road is somebody else's job, apparently.
Productive AI use takes more than ambition and investor pressure: processes, data, guardrails. First the road, then the speed.
More sales pressure is the most expensive answer to a mechanics problem. The world doesn't need more sales slop.
When positioning, pricing, and sales motion are off, more hunting only makes the damage faster. I start in the engine room.
Hiring three more hunters is the 2019 answer. The cheapest sales rep in 2026 is your product.
Partners, product, and price beat direct sales more often than most plans admit. Three levers, tested in three mandates.
AI without context is like skiing in summer. You can, but you really don't have to.
Without your own data and workflows, every model stays a party trick. Context is the slope.
AI is a tool, not a product. Your painter doesn't sell you the brush either.
What gets paid for is the painted house. If all you sell is the brush, you're a commodity within six months.
Software that's just a pretty window onto someone else's data has an expiry date. MCP just moved it up.
Open protocols talk to the data directly. The moat moves into workflow and data ownership, and valuations follow.
Go ahead, keep banning AI. Do you really think the kids don't know where the sweets are?
Your team is using AI already, with or without approval. The only question is whether anyone is watching.
Nobody ever got fit from a gym membership alone. The ChatGPT license works the same way.
70 percent of the value sits in reworking how people work. The license is the membership card. The training starts after.
No AI is going to steal your deal. The competitor who uses it more consistently will.
It's a Red Queen race: standing still means falling behind. For software vendors, twice over.
Convios & Ventures
Both happen at the same desk: operational leadership roles and board work, AI adoption and software governance for B2B companies and their investors.
My company · since 2006
Analysis and implementation in bounded steps: scaling audit, 90-day lever and support. For investors and portfolios as well as business owners and management teams.
convios.com →Own B2B SaaS Venture
B2B SaaS platform for AI-powered compliance management. EU AI Act, DORA, ISO 27001 modeled as structured data. Built with own engineering team in India. Currently in development.
Ethenios →Department of Informatics · University of Zurich
Lectureship with an MSc lecture on Global Software Management and a BSc seminar on Applied AI Systems. Executive sparring via Convios.
convios.com →Contact
Feedback on an article, sparring, a concrete situation in your company: write to me, or book 30 minutes directly in my calendar.
Convios GmbH · Bischof-Riegg-Str. 19a · 86899 Landsberg am Lech · Germany